The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 3 June, 2024

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Norway to Grant United States More Access in Northern Norway

High North News reported on May 31 that Norway’s parliament has approved an amendment agreement under the Supplemental Defense Cooperation Agreement that grants the United States military full access to several additional areas, including the Andøya and Bardufoss air stations in Northern Norway. According to the agreement, the US will be able to train, deploy forces, and store material in the agreed areas, as well as enforce security in and around the designated areas. (High North News)

Take 1: The Norwegian parliament’s decision to grant the US military access to new areas in Northern Norway has significant implications for Arctic security and enhances NATO’s strategic presence in the High North and the Arctic. By aligning with US military objectives, Norway aims to improve its defense capabilities and secure its northern territories against potential threats, particularly from Russia, whose Arctic activity has been escalating. This agreement fits within a broader context of increasing military cooperation between the US and Nordic countries, which in turn emphasizes the necessity of a collective response to potential Arctic threats. For Norway, this not only strengthens bilateral ties with the US but also better integrates its defense strategies with NATO’s collective security framework. However, the Norwegian parliament’s decision has been criticized on the grounds that while Norway has traditionally sought to diffuse tensions in the region, this agreement might provoke Russia and lead to heightened military tensions. This policy shift could thus mark a significant change in Norway’s approach to Arctic diplomacy and defense. The agreement also highlights the growing importance of the Arctic in global security dynamics and the increasing priority the US has assigned to Arctic security. As climate change opens new navigational routes and resource opportunities, the region’s strategic significance is set to increase, necessitating robust defense and cooperation frameworks, as well as knowledge sharing among Arctic and non-Arctic states. Norway’s latest move can be seen as a proactive step in securing its interests in this evolving geopolitical landscape. (Arctic Review on Law and Politics, High North News, High North News, US Department of State)

Norway Wants to Thwart Russia’s Plans for Education Center in Svalbard 

As The Barents Observer reported on June 1, Norway plans to ensure its University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) remains the sole provider of higher education on the archipelago, countering Russia’s proposed international science center in its former coal-mining town of Pyramiden. In a new report to parliament, Norway’s government emphasized the need to strengthen national control over Svalbard to maintain stability and oversight of scientific activities.The government intends to earmark resources from the Norwegian Polar Institute and the Research Council of Norway to improve research management on the archipelago. (The Barents Observer)​

Take 2: Recent developments concerning Norway’s efforts to counter Russia’s plan to establish an educational center in Svalbard highlight yet another dimension of the implications of the increasing Russian presence in the Arctic. Positioned directly north of Kola Peninsula, which houses Russia’s key strategic forces, Svalbard’s location is critical for Arctic security. Control over Svalbard impacts access for Russia’s Northern Fleet, and its location will also be crucial for emerging Arctic shipping routes. Norway aims to strengthen its control over Svalbard, as established by the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, which grants Norway “full and absolute sovereignty,” while allowing signatories equal rights to engage in commercial activities and maintain the archipelago as a visa-free zone. Russia’s plan, announced last year, to build a science complex in Svalbard in cooperation with its BRICS partners (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and other so-called “friendly countries” would expand its presence in the archipelago under the guise of research and education​ rather than resource extraction. Russia’s Kola Science Center already has a small presence in Barentsburg, the second-largest community in Svalbard. This move is part of Russia’s broader strategy to pivot towards “friendly states” amidst its geopolitical isolation following its invasion of Ukraine, as well as to increase its Arctic presence. Furthermore, the presence of international researchers—including from China and India—in Norway’s main research center, Ny-Ålesund, complicates the geopolitical landscape. Russia’s endeavor to create a similar center could lead to increased tensions and competition over scientific and strategic dominance in the Arctic​. (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Polar Journal, The Barents Observer, The Barents Observer)​

More Allowable Tags for This Year’s Harvest as Aerial Survey Shows “Positive Signs” for South Baffin Caribou

Nunatsiaq News reported on May 31 that Nunavut’s Minister of Environment Daniel Qavvik announced that the total allowable harvest for the 2024-25 season will be 450 caribou—up from 400 last year—and include 90 females, compared to last year’s 80. The quota decision is based on the results of a recent aerial survey of the South Baffin Caribou Herd. The survey was the first in a decade and aimed to monitor the herd’s recovery after a dramatic decline from 150,000 in the 1980s to about 4,600 in 2014. The results will be made public once the data analysis is complete. (Nunatsiaq News)

Take 3: The recent survey indicating positive developments for the South Baffin Caribou Herd holds significant implications for both conservation efforts and local communities in Nunavut, which rely on community caribou harvesting. Historically, the South Baffin caribou population experienced a dramatic decline. In the 1990s, the herd was estimated to number between 60,000 and 180,000. By 2012, the population had plummeted by over 95%, to fewer than 2,000 animals, and about 4,600 were counted during the last aerial survey, in 2014. This drastic reduction prompted the Nunavut government to implement strict conservation measures, including a temporary moratorium on hunting. Caribou are known to go through natural population cycles, but the dramatic decline in recent decades has also been linked to climate change and environmental disturbances, including mining and infrastructure construction. This year’s aerial survey, however, suggests a potential recovery, with positive signs such as increased calf production and healthier adult caribou​. The caribou are not only a vital food source for Nunavut communities but also hold deep cultural and spiritual importance for the Inuit​. Conservation strategies must continue to prioritize habitat protection and sustainable management practices grounded in Inuit knowledge or Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit (IQ). While the initial survey results are encouraging, ongoing monitoring and adaptive co-management strategies are crucial to ensure the South Baffin caribou herd’s full recovery, benefiting both the ecosystem and the Inuit communities that rely on it. (Northern Caribou, Nunatsiaq News, Nunavut Wildlife Management Board)

New Research Links Wet and Warm Extremes in Svalbard to Atmospheric Blocking

A new study published in Nature Communications on June 3 links climate extremes in Svalbard over the past two millennia to a phenomenon known as atmospheric blocking. Atmospheric blocking occurs when high or low pressure systems stall over a region. Researchers found that these blocking patterns draw warmer, moister air up from the mid-Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic, causing prolonged and intense precipitation events, leading to flooding. Analysis of sediment records from Linnévatnet (Lake Linné) shows that such events in Svalbard are driven by stagnant high-pressure systems over Scandinavia and the Ural region. (Nature Communications)

Take 4: The study published in Nature Communications explores the significant role of atmospheric blocking in driving extreme temperature changes in the Arctic. Atmospheric blocking is an environmental phenomenon that is not yet well understood. This research is crucial as it highlights how prolonged high-pressure systems trap heat in the region, leading to warmer temperatures and accelerated ice melt. The study utilized a combination of climate models and observational data (including field research on lake sediments and tree rings) to establish a robust connection between these blocking events and recent warming trends in the Arctic. The study found that atmospheric blocking has become more frequent and persistent, contributing to record-breaking temperatures and rapid ice melt in the Arctic. There is also a relationship between high-rain events in Svalbard and atmospheric blocking over Scandinavia. Their results are significant because the Arctic plays a critical role in global climate regulation. The Arctic is warming at more than three times the global average, and the increased temperatures in Svalbard—which are twice the Arctic-wide average—are of particular concern. The findings underscore the need for better climate models that can account for these blocking events and their global impacts. They also highlight the need for immediate action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to slow down the accelerating changes in the Arctic. By improving our understanding of atmospheric blocking, this study contributes to predicting and potentially mitigating the future impacts of climate change, as well as improving the understanding of Svalbard’s unique environmental conditions. (Nature Communications, Phys.org, Polar Record, UMass Amherst, US Climate Variability and Predictability Program)

Yukon Government Considers Emission Reduction Subsidies for Mining Companies

Eye on the Arctic reported on June 4 that the Yukon territorial government is considering subsidies for mining companies to reduce emissions, aiming for a 45% emission cut by 2035. Internal documents indicate that the government considers these subsidies essential to attract and maintain industry investment and meet targets. The government plans to legislate these targets through amendments to the Clean Energy Act in the fall, with potential funding from the Output-Based Pricing System, Ottawa’s carbon pricing system for large emitters. (Eye on the Arctic)

Take 5: The Yukon government’s consideration of subsidies for mining companies to reduce emissions reflects a critical juncture in addressing the environmental impact of extractive industries in the North. This move is especially significant given the urgent need to mitigate climate change and the complex relationship between Northern governments and extractive industries. Resource extraction is a major contributor to global carbon emissions, responsible for around half of the world’s carbon output and a significant share of environmental degradation. In the Yukon, mining accounted for more than 15% of all emissions between 2009 and 2020. In this context, the Yukon’s initiative to cut emissions from active mines aligns with global efforts to decarbonize extractive operations and move towards more sustainable practices. Northern and Arctic regions face unique environmental challenges exacerbated by climate change. Thawing permafrost, for example, can destabilize mining infrastructure and operations, posing additional risks. Reducing emissions is necessary to maintain the viability of extractive activities and to preserve traditional land-based lifestyles. The Yukon’s goal—a 45% decrease in emissions by 2035—is ambitious. The relationships between Northern governments and the extractive industries, however, remain crucial. Governments often depend on the revenue from these industries for economic development and mining companies have an outsize influence in Northern territories. Thus, balancing economic benefits with environmental stewardship is essential. It is not clear, however, whether government subsidies for mining corporations will achieve this balance in a way that is sustainable in the long term rather than only benefiting industry using taxpayer dollars. (Eye on the Arctic, Government of Yukon, Natural Resource Governance Institute, Yukon News)