Trump’s climate passport

Could the President’s rereading of his family history in the context of climate change save the Paris deal?

November 23, 2017 12:15 am | Updated May 25, 2021 09:10 am IST

A picture taken on November 16, 2017 shows people dressed up in polar bear costumes and a man with a mask of US president Donald Trump during a performance created by Danish artist Jens Galschiot during the COP23 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany. / AFP PHOTO / PATRIK STOLLARZ

A picture taken on November 16, 2017 shows people dressed up in polar bear costumes and a man with a mask of US president Donald Trump during a performance created by Danish artist Jens Galschiot during the COP23 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany. / AFP PHOTO / PATRIK STOLLARZ

The U.S., it is now acknowledged, is the official climate villain. Earlier this year, the country withdrew from the list of nearly 200 countries who had in Paris, in 2015, agreed to cap emissions enough to keep the globe from heating over 2°C. Given President Donald Trump’s appeal among a section of the American public who believe that immigrants are a threat to the economy, an intriguing analysis finds that climate change is closely linked to waves of immigration into the U.S., particularly to the many German migrations to which the Trump family traces its origins.

In the 19th century, say a group of researchers at the University of Freiburg, over five million Germans moved to North America. While poverty, war and revolutions characterised the region that eventually became Germany, that was also a time of marked variations in climate. Starting at the tail end of the cold period known as the Little Ice Age, the period saw an increase in glaciers and a number of chilly winters and cool summers, as well as other extreme weather events such as droughts and floods.

The researchers — according to a press note — saw a climate “signature” in several major migration waves from Southwest Germany at the time that explained 20-30% of migration from Southwest Germany to North America. The team sourced its data from official migration statistics and population data from the 19th century, as well as weather data, harvest figures and cereal-price records. They focussed on the region that is now the Baden-Württemberg state from where many of the migrants originated. The neighbouring Palatinate region of southwest Germany is where the Trump family traces its roots.

The first migration wave followed the eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia in 1815. The volcanic ash and gases spewed into the atmosphere and caused temperatures to drop around the world for a few years after the eruption. The ‘year without a summer’, 1816, was wet and cold causing widespread crop failures, famine and emigration. Another peak migration year, 1846, had an extremely hot and dry summer that led to bad harvests and high food prices.

In the past few years, climate has taken a central stage in migration discussions since future climate change is expected to lead to mass migration (‘climate refugees’) as sea levels rise and extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and hurricanes, become more frequent. The researchers say that their studies explicate the various factors influencing migration, and how important a factor climate can be in triggering mass movements of people. The annual Conference of the Parties talks that concluded in Bonn last week was so insipid that it barely made it to the inside pages of a few papers. This was because there was no progress on laying down a clear road map on making the Paris Agreement operational by 2020. The Trump administration, in fact, organised a session on the importance of fossil fuel to the economy of the future. Could a Trump rereading of his family history in the context of climate change save the Paris deal?

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